Why Kamala Harris Will Be The Democratic Nominee in 2020

Despite a boost in the polls after the first debate, Kamala Harris has lost momentum. The most recent FiveThirtyEight poll-of-polls places Harris solidly in the second sub-tier within the top tier candidates, ahead of Mayor Buttigieg but behind front runners Biden, Sanders and Warren.

The well-respected Quinnipiac Poll had more bad news:

Despite the dire prognosis (if polls are to be believed), Kamala Harris remains the most likely winner of these Democratic primaries and caucuses — for a simple reason, the Democratic nomination process has become increasingly issue and demographic-determined, and less about the individual qualities or personal stories of the candidates.

The 2020 primary is in many ways the sequel to the great race in 2016 where a centrist “get-things-done” Clinton barely eked out a victory against a liberal, more ideologically-driven Bernie Sanders.

The Biden campaign has thus far been very disciplined, determined to run out the clock on the basis of name recognition and — in a concerted effort to recruit independents — consciously refraining from supporting policies like eliminating private insurance in favor of Medicare-for-All.

As standalone candidates, it seems unlikely that either Warren or Sanders can defeat Biden nationally. But the two progressive candidates can inflict a lot of damage to the front runner, for instance by casting Biden as overly cautious and beholden to corporate interests. Voters have not heard a lot about the thousands of votes Biden cast as a centrist Democrats over three decades — there’s a good reason — they are being stored as ammunition for when the damage will be maximized, by both his Democratic rivals and Donald Trump.

Amid what is likely to be the most brutal Democratic primary in two decades, Harris is the top tier candidate who can plausibly unite both factions. She supports a more moderate version of Medicare-for-All (and has been attacked by Biden for it, which oddly, improves her liberal bona fides).

On contentious issues like race and poverty, she has struck a nuanced tone, saying she is “studying” reparations for descendants of slaves. She seems to also prefer the use of the tax code to alleviate low income pressures and student debt through tax credits and subsidies. Many of her Democratic rivals, in particular Elizabeth Warren, have proposed more far-reaching policies such as student debt elimination or pure cash transfers to ameliorate poverty.

It is inevitable in a Democratic Primary that candidates’ bona fides when it comes to race and gender are scrutinized.

Many in the party will recognize the invocation of issues as weaponized tactics, but these issues remain potent, as evident from Harris’ much-publicized take-down of Biden in the first debate on school busing, and Gillibrand’s perhaps less successful attempt during the second debate to insinuate Biden did not support working women.

A year is a lifetime in American politics, so count on all the top candidates to be exposed and attacked on the basis of past statements and/or positions that are inconsistent with today’s Democratic Party values.

All the top tier men — Biden, Sanders and Buttigieg — have been accused at some point of undermining minorities. Warren’s elite Harvard background and wealth will eventually be exploited by Twitter activists skilled at harnessing voters’ antipathy for the wealthy and elite institutions.

By virtue of her race and gender, Harris will likely be immune to any major missteps. And in a race where five to six candidates may be competitive, losing a distraction is an advantage.

Despite the overwhelming name recognition Hillary Clinton enjoyed over Barack Obama in 2008, Obama prevailed, in large part because David Axelrod and David Plouffe did the math and recognized the importance of caucus states very early on. By the time the Clinton campaign realized what the ground game was, it was too late.

Which brings us to that inconvenient Quinnipiac poll that tallied Black support nationally for Harris at only 1%. Again, history is instructive. Black voters are the most loyal and pragmatic voting bloc in the Democratic coalition. When Black voters, particularly Black women, realize Harris is viable, expect her to crush Warren and Sanders in South Carolina.

Remember the Politico sound bite below from 2007, when Clinton was “inevitable” and a “lock” for Black voters? Obama went on to beat Clinton by nearly 30 points in South Carolina.

After February, the conversation among Democrats will focus increasingly on the question of who can beat Donald Trump.

Post-South Carolina, Biden will likely have a small delegate lead. But if Warren and Sanders were to suffer a large defeat in South Carolina, progressives will increasingly look to Harris as the standard bearer to defeat Biden before the Democratic Party is irredeemably fractured.

In the minds of many — and these minds won’t change — Biden can’t out-debate Trump. Warren and Sanders most likely can, but they are not likely to prevail in the big delegate-rich contests for March: California (416 delegates), North Carolina (110) Texas (228), Michigan (125), Ohion (136), Florida (219), Illinois (155) and Georgia (105).

So, advantage Harris.

The path to the White House for a President Biden is predicated on his ability to unite the party and achieve an overwhelming win in the primaries. Why else would Democratic voters consider a candidate who lost in three previous contests stretching back to the 1970s? If Biden emerges from the March contents with a small lead or none, the pressure to give way to a charismatic, young African American woman will be overwhelming.

The media narrative will begin shifting in favor of Harris. After all — what the media wants, the media gets. That’s how we ended up with Trump.

When Harris announced her run in January, many liberal activists expressed strong support. Somewhere along the way, the candidate lost her mojo. Perhaps she was too cautious. Perhaps she was focusing too much on the general election. Or more likely, she was finding her footing on a national stage and the retail politics that are Iowa and New Hampshire seem to always pose a challenge to more introverted politicians.

Introverted politicians like Hilary Clinton.

During the late stage of the 2008 primary campaign, when hope was almost lost, Hillary Clinton found her voice. She was at her most formidable when she was vulnerable, but of course, her improvement as a candidate was not sufficient to defeat “the math”. For Kamala Harris, even with all her inherent advantages and game theory assumptions that seem to play in her favor, at some point, Candidate Harris will have to find her voice.

She may not need to in order to become the the Democratic nominee. But she will if she is to defeat Donald Trump.

Contact Jay Gho at jay@jaygho.com.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed are my own and do not express the views or opinions of my employer, past or present, or any other organization with which I may be affiliated.

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